MSD / Mechanismus / RESEARCH EDITION

The J-curve: rebuild first, harvest later

Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson explain how complementary investments in organization and knowledge can delay the measured benefits of an enabling technology.

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RESEARCH NOTE / 2018Mechanismus

Wirtschaft & Arbeit

External research · MSD classification
Keine Behauptung eines eigenen Versuchs.

01 / EINORDNUNG

What this finding means.

Grenzen des Nachweises

The J-curve is an explanation of transitions, not a promise of automatically increasing returns later.

Our derivation for a pilot operation

Capture data cleansing, training and process design as investments; This work does not disappear in the purchase price of a robot.

This derivation is an editorial recommendation from MSD. It is not a further result of the study cited.

Source and version

NBER · Productivity J-Curve · Publikations-/Bezugsjahr 2018. Recherchiert am 12.11.2026.

Read primary source ↗

External research, not an MSD customer reference. We will only publish our own experiments with their setup, date, measurements and documented failed attempts.

02 / LINKS

Think ahead. Keep checking.

Wirtschaft & Arbeit / Befund / 2023

KI im Support: messbarer Nutzen, ungleich verteilt ↗

5,179 Support staff form the basis of the NBER working paper. With assistance, the number of issues resolved per hour increased by an average of 14%. New and less experienced forces particularly benefited.

Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond · NBER 31161
Economics & Work / Context / 2025

Exposure is not a layoff forecast ↗

The refined ILO index examines which occupational activities could be exposed to generative AI. It assesses technical exposure, not actual decisions to cut jobs.

ILO · Working Paper 140
Wirtschaft & Arbeit / Gegenbefund / 2017

Industrial automation can displace employment ↗

Acemoglu and Restrepo examine historical US labor markets with varying exposure to industrial robots and find negative local employment and wage effects.

Acemoglu & Restrepo · NBER 23285